Investing Through Uncertainty: Why Real Estate Remains Part of My Strategy
Lately, I’ve been hearing a phrase more often: “the only certainty is uncertainty.” And after reviewing Compound’s latest investment memo and watching markets respond to everything from tariff shifts to revised job numbers, I can’t argue with it.
We’ve seen earnings drive temporary rallies, followed by market drops tied to labor data, inflation surprises, and rate speculation. In this kind of environment, I’m not looking for the next high-flying asset. I’m looking for balance. That’s why I continue to invest in real estate—not as a silver bullet, but as a key component in a diversified portfolio that’s built to hold up when things get messy.
Why Real Estate Deserves a Seat at the Table
Real estate, especially when privately held, offers three things I value when uncertainty is high: consistent income, local control, and inflation resilience.
According to Nuveen, private real estate’s correlation to equities can be as low as 0.05, and its average income return is close to 6 percent. That combination of low volatility and high income is rare. Arca Capital adds that rising construction costs can benefit existing assets, while Investopedia emphasizes that infrastructure and real estate are two of the strongest diversifiers for long-term investors.
I don’t expect real estate to outperform every year. But I’ve come to see it as a stabilizer. Unlike stocks or crypto, rental properties don’t fluctuate on headlines. They aren’t priced by sentiment. When chosen wisely, they simply generate rent.
Why I Focus on Dallas—and Section 8
Dallas continues to outperform many national markets on fundamentals. The metro added more than 178,000 residents last year, making it the fastest-growing region in the country. Corporate investment remains strong, with nearly 500 major projects funded in 2024 alone. Vacancy rates in quality submarkets are holding steady, and household formation is rising faster than inventory can keep up.
At the same time, the Dallas Housing Authority supports over 17,000 voucher holders, and demand continues to rise (though as of late it’s been met with waitlists). In areas where I invest, a 4-bedroom voucher can pay up to $3,350 a month, often exceeding market rent. When you combine that level of rental support with population growth, business activity and landlord regulation, the case for long-term stability becomes clear.
Section 8 adds an additional layer of insulation. In downturns, these rent payments don’t disappear. They often become more secure as need increases. Tenants stay longer, reducing vacancy and turnover. And with careful property selection, cash flow can remain strong even in challenging economic conditions.
It’s Not Risk-Free, But It’s more Controllable
None of this means real estate is without risk. Insurance premiums in Texas rose over 30 percent last year. Property taxes are high. HUD is under increasing fiscal pressure, and recent rent freezes show that future voucher increases may be limited.
There’s also a broader trend to watch: real estate’s correlation to public equities is rising in some cases, which means it doesn’t always behave like a shock absorber. But that’s not a reason to avoid it. It’s a reason to be selective, to model carefully, and to own properties you understand.
One thing I appreciate about real estate is the degree of control. I can walk the property. I can meet the tenant. I can improve systems, adjust rent, and choose the right management team. That’s not possible with stocks or mutual funds. Especially in a region like DFW, where local governance remains favorable, zoning is flexible, and rental demand is consistent, that control translates into tangible advantage.
The Bigger Picture: Balance Over Prediction
I don’t view real estate as a hedge or a reaction to market fear. I view it as part of a well-rounded portfolio—alongside equities, bonds, and other long-term holdings.
Financial planners increasingly recommend building around resilience, not just returns. Diversification, cash flow, and control matter more when volatility becomes the norm. That’s how I think about real estate. It’s not a bet. It’s a strategy. One built on income, fundamentals, and the ability to adapt locally when macro conditions shift.
In a world that changes by the headline, I find peace of mind in knowing at least one part of my portfolio isn’t built on speculation. It’s built on actual homes, real tenants, and monthly rent checks that arrive on time.
That’s why I continue to invest here. Not because I expect perfection, but because I want consistency. And right now, consistency is more valuable than ever.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this post reflect my personal experience and opinions as a real estate investor and do not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. I am not a licensed investment advisor or wealth management professional.