🗞️ SolMidas Monthly: June 2025 Investor Market Snapshot

Dallas Investors Stay Patient as Closings Cool and Leasing Slows

In a market shaped by higher-for-longer interest rates and persistent supply challenges, DFW real estate continued its slow slide into a buyer’s market in June 2025 — but not all signals point down.

Total closings across DHA served counties came in at 2,316, virtually flat from last year (-0.3% YoY), but the underlying story is one of rebalancing. Days on market rose 31% to an average of 53, as sellers increasingly faced longer listing times and negotiated prices. The average home sold for $302.6K, down 1.6% YoY, and homes are now closing at just 97.7% of their original listing price (-69bps YoY) — a clear shift in bargaining power back toward buyers.

Rents, meanwhile, have held mostly steady. Average lease rates dipped slightly to $2,583 (down 0.7% YoY), while leasing activity itself slowed. It now takes 38 days on average to place a tenant — up 11% YoY — hinting at softer tenant movement despite strong regional demand.

That trend might surprise investors expecting demand to surge as homeownership becomes less affordable. With rates high and down payments out of reach for many renters, logic says they should be flooding the rental market. But instead, many tenants are simply staying put. Lease turnover is lower, even as population growth continues — creating a stickier, more competitive leasing environment that favors homes priced just right. While this data pertains to non Section 8, we know DHA has also asked their tenants to reduce moves in an effort to curb costs.

📉 Topline Data (All DHA counties, 3–5 BR homes under $400K)

Rank City Closings YoY Days to Sell YoY Avg Price YoY Avg Rent YoY Days to Lease YoY
1Fort Worth443(11.9%)5629.0%$295.0K(2.5%)$2,271(1.7%)347.8%
2Dallas199(6.6%)6527.6%$260.1K(6.1%)$3,3212.9%500.8%
3Arlington1621.9%4426.5%$306.4K(1.5%)$2,3100.8%33(2.5%)
4Garland109(6.0%)5476.8%$298.7K(3.7%)$2,292(1.2%)3311.6%
5Mesquite61(17.6%)4622.1%$267.5K(2.8%)$2,072(1.3%)4131.3%
6Denton6030.4%4262.2%$324.1K(1.0%)$2,227(5.9%)386.9%
7Grand Prairie60(6.3%)3711.7%$296.5K(0.8%)$2,6518.3%34(12.2%)
8Forney5517.0%56(16.5%)$297.0K(6.1%)$2,319(2.6%)5332.9%
9Irving422.4%4412.2%$319.5K14.5%$2,8641.7%3315.6%
10McKinney4178.3%5455.9%$347.0K(4.4%)$2,623(1.7%)3420.7%
All Other1,0844.5%5335.8%$312.4K(1.3%)$2,629(1.3%)3711.3%
Grand Total2,316(0.3%)5331.3%$302.6K(1.6%)$2,583(0.7%)3810.9%

Source: MLS. Comparison of June 2025 vs. June 2024. Includes 3–5 bedroom single family homes (not from builder) across DHA-served counties.

Of the top 10 cities by closings, McKinney (+78.3%), Denton (+30.4%), and Forney (+17.0%) led the charge. That said, not all momentum is created equal. While Forney’s volume looks strong, investors should approach with caution — we’ve seen firsthand that leasing has been slower there this year due to local oversupply and security concerns. (That’s intel you won’t find in a spreadsheet.)

At SolMidas, we filter through this data so you don’t have to. The chart may say “growing,” but we’ve learned that smart investing is about context, not just comps.

🏘️ Where Leasing Is Moving Fastest (and Slowest)

Rank Zipcode City Closings YoY Days to Sell YoY Avg Price YoY Avg Rent YoY Days to Lease YoY
176179Saginaw66(1.5%)5352.4%$309.0K(4.0%)$2,2100.8%3821.0%
275126Forney621.6%662.5%$296.3K(5.8%)$2,320(3.0%)5536.6%
376227Aubrey609.1%7991.5%$331.5K(0.7%)$2,206(6.0%)5125.3%
476108White Settlement39(23.5%)5253.6%$273.6K(6.3%)$2,167(5.4%)36144.1%
576133Fort Worth395.4%4532.4%$284.6K(3.7%)$1,996(0.1%)4270.7%
676137Fort Worth3826.7%4041.2%$315.3K(3.3%)$2,156(3.2%)50145.4%
775068Little Elm36(2.7%)51112.1%$346.4K(0.4%)$2,414(0.8%)34(20.2%)
876244Fort Worth3417.2%33(22.3%)$346.8K3.0%$2,4141.3%21(6.5%)
975052Grand Prairie33(10.8%)3939.7%$324.7K5.4%$2,4871.7%44(12.1%)
1075040Garland33(13.2%)4642.0%$295.5K(0.2%)$2,2495.8%28(25.9%)
Grand Total2,316(0.3%)5331.3%$302.6K(1.6%)$2,583(0.7%)3810.9%

Source: MLS. Comparison of June 2025 vs. June 2024. Includes 3–5 bedroom single family homes (not from builder) across DHA-served counties.

At the zip code level, Saginaw (76179) and Forney (75126) led in volume, but speed to lease tells a more textured story. Some areas like Fort Worth 76244 saw tenants move in after just 21 days, while nearby Aubrey (76227) took more than 50. Across zip codes, rents clustered between $2,100 and $2,400 — critical benchmarks for aligning with DHA’s rent ceilings.

And remember, this leasing data comes from conventional rental activity. While it’s not Section 8-specific, it’s the best proxy available to track what’s realistic when Housing Authorities are paused or capped — which, lately, has been more common than we’d like. That’s why SolMidas clients get this type of intelligence monthly: if you’re relying on public funding, you need a clear picture of the private fallback.

🧠 What This Means for Investors

Here’s the bottom line: deals are still out there, but patience is no longer optional.

With leasing taking longer and tenant movement slowing, you need to underwrite to a longer timeline and keep your expectations dialed in. The ability to adapt — whether to Housing Authority delays, changing rent ceilings, or shifting zip code trends — is what sets successful investors apart.

That’s also why we built this: real, filtered MLS data pulled by hand, shaped specifically for the SolMidas community. If you’ve been feeling the market slow in your gut, now the numbers back it up. And if you’re looking for where to pivot next — we’ve got your zip code.

🧭 National Context: Dallas in Line With Broader Trends

Nationally, the story is similar — if not worse. U.S. home sales fell 4.5% YoY in June, according to Redfin, while new listings dropped 9%. Dallas’ flat performance actually puts it ahead of many large metros. Rents across the country were mostly flat or slightly down, and affordability remains the dominant constraint.

But Dallas remains uniquely investable. Inventory under $400K still exists here — and not just in name. While the rest of the country battles sticker shock, DFW continues to deliver value with growth potential. The trick is knowing where to look — and how to wait it out when needed.

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