2026 Starts With a Reality Check: What DHA’s New Payment Standards Mean for Dallas Investors
The first data point of 2026 is not an easy one.
The Dallas Housing Authority has published its 2026 Housing Choice Voucher payment standards, and across nearly every zip code it serves, those standards moved lower year over year. Out of roughly 400 zip codes, only four saw any increase. The rest declined, many of them meaningfully.
At first glance, that feels dramatic. But before diving into which zip codes were hit hardest, it is worth taking a step back and clarifying what these numbers actually represent and what they do not.
What Payment Standards Are (And Are Not)
One misconception worth clearing up early is that payment standards are not market rents. This is critical to understand.
They represent the maximum subsidy, inclusive of utilities, that a housing authority is willing to pay for a given unit size in a specific zip code. Every property still goes through rent reasonableness, where comparable market leases are evaluated before a final rent is approved. That process remains unchanged.
In practice, payment standards function as a ceiling, not a guaranteed outcome. Many approved rents come in below the published maximum, and in some cases, exceptions are still possible when supported by market data.
With that context, the 2026 update should be understood as a lower ceiling on paper, not a sudden collapse in tenant demand or neighborhood-level rents.
Where the 2026 Declines Are Most Visible
On average, DHA payment standards are down roughly 8–9% year over year. In several historically strong voucher zip codes, the nominal declines are larger.
Mesquite’s 75181, long one of the most sought-after areas for voucher-backed rentals, illustrates this clearly. Three-bedroom standards declined from about $3,300 to $2,800. Four-bedroom standards dropped from roughly $4,250 to $3,573, a reduction of nearly $700, or about 15–16% depending on unit type.
Other closely watched zip codes show similar patterns. Lavon’s 75166 is down approximately 14–15%. Fort Worth’s 76179 declined about 11%. The consistently strong 76123 area is down roughly 10%. Markets like Arlington and Anna, which previously supported $3,000 three-bedroom subsidies, now sit closer to $2,600–$2,700.
The table below highlights the specific zip codes we actively track and their year-over-year changes. The dispersion across submarkets matters far more than the headline average.
| Zipcode | City | 2025 (3BR) | 2026 (3BR) | YoY | 2025 (4BR) | 2026 (4BR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75409 | Anna | $3,150 | $2,826 | -10.3% | $4,040 | $3,591 | -11.1% |
| 76001 | Arlington | $2,950 | $2,673 | -9.4% | $3,600 | $3,312 | -8.0% |
| 76002 | Arlington | $3,390 | $3,060 | -9.7% | $4,130 | $3,798 | -8.0% |
| 76018 | Arlington | $3,030 | $2,673 | -11.8% | $3,700 | $3,312 | -10.5% |
| 76131 | Blue Mound | $2,910 | $2,556 | -12.2% | $3,550 | $3,159 | -11.0% |
| 75104 | Cedar Hill | $2,860 | $2,637 | -7.8% | $3,670 | $3,357 | -8.5% |
| 76227 | Cross Roads | $3,120 | $2,799 | -10.3% | $4,010 | $3,555 | -11.3% |
| 75249 | Dallas | $3,050 | $2,772 | -9.1% | $3,910 | $3,528 | -9.8% |
| 75189 | Fate | $2,980 | $2,799 | -6.1% | $3,830 | $3,555 | -7.2% |
| 75126 | Forney | $3,050 | $2,808 | -7.9% | $3,910 | $3,573 | -8.6% |
| 76052 | Fort Worth | $3,110 | $2,907 | -6.5% | $3,830 | $3,609 | -5.8% |
| 76123 | Fort Worth | $3,390 | $3,060 | -9.7% | $4,130 | $3,798 | -8.0% |
| 76179 | Fort Worth | $3,030 | $2,682 | -11.5% | $3,700 | $3,321 | -10.2% |
| 75036 | Frisco | $3,430 | $3,159 | -7.9% | $4,410 | $4,023 | -8.8% |
| 76247 | Justin | $3,140 | $2,970 | -5.4% | $4,030 | $3,780 | -6.2% |
| 75166 | Lavon | $3,100 | $2,673 | -13.8% | $3,980 | $3,402 | -14.5% |
| 75068 | Little Elm | $3,300 | $3,033 | -8.1% | $4,230 | $3,861 | -8.7% |
| 75454 | Melissa | $3,550 | $3,276 | -7.7% | $4,560 | $4,167 | -8.6% |
| 75181 | Mesquite | $3,310 | $2,808 | -15.2% | $4,250 | $3,573 | -15.9% |
| 75407 | Princeton | $2,670 | $2,583 | -3.3% | $3,430 | $3,285 | -4.2% |
| 75032 | Rockwall | $2,840 | $2,682 | -5.6% | $3,650 | $3,411 | -6.5% |
| 75088 | Rowlett | $3,120 | $2,799 | -10.3% | $4,010 | $3,555 | -11.3% |
| 75089 | Rowlett | $2,990 | $2,763 | -7.6% | $3,850 | $3,519 | -8.6% |
| 76148 | Watauga | $2,910 | $2,628 | -9.7% | $3,550 | $3,249 | -8.5% |
Source: Dallas Housing Authority; Payment standards shown are maximum subsidy levels and include utilities; final approved rents depend on rent reasonableness.
What Stands Out (And What Does Not)
The direction of change itself was not surprising. What stands out is the magnitude.
Across the broader Dallas rental market, non-voucher rents are down only about 1–2% year over year. A correction closer to 8–9% on the subsidy side is meaningful, particularly in an environment where utilities, insurance, and property taxes have all moved higher.
This unquestionably makes DHA-backed deals less attractive than they were in 2024 or 2025. But less attractive does not mean unworkable. In many of these zip codes, approved voucher rents still exceed open-market alternatives for comparable homes.
What This Means for Strategy
Importantly, this does not fundamentally change our investment approach.
We are still targeting zip codes where acquisition pricing, achievable rents, and voucher demand align. Areas like Mesquite, Arlington, and parts of Fort Worth remain relevant, even if margins are thinner than they were previously.
What may change is participation. Lower maximum subsidies could discourage marginal landlords from entering the program. At the same time, disciplined investors who buy correctly and understand unit mix can still make four-bedroom and well-located three-bedroom properties pencil.
We are also increasingly focused on flexibility. In some submarkets, voucher-backed leases will continue to outperform open-market rents. In others, a blended strategy that allows for both voucher and non-voucher tenants becomes an advantage rather than a compromise.
This Appears to Be a DHA-Specific Adjustment
It is also worth noting that, based on the data published so far, these sharper reductions appear to be specific to DHA.
Other local housing authorities that have released 2026 payment standards have not shown declines of the same magnitude. Early updates from Dallas County Housing, Tarrant County, and Grand Prairie suggest more modest changes. I previously covered Dallas County’s update in detail, which showed far less volatility than what we are seeing from DHA.
Over time, both landlords and tenants tend to respond to these differences. Programs that balance predictability and economics tend to attract more participation, and that dynamic remains in play.
A Key Variable Still in Flux: 2025 Cost Measures
Another important factor to watch is DHA’s cost-containment measures introduced in 2025, including the effective freeze on HAP growth.
As of now, we have not seen confirmation that those measures will continue into 2026. If they are allowed to sunset, that could partially offset the impact of lower published payment standards in practice. Even with lower ceilings, greater flexibility in renewals and rent approvals would materially improve real-world outcomes for landlords.
In other words, while the 2026 payment standards set a lower maximum on paper, the actual leasing experience under DHA may end up being less restrictive than last year, not more. That uncertainty is worth acknowledging.
The Bigger Picture Still Favors Dallas
Stepping back, the broader fundamentals that make Dallas attractive remain intact. Population growth, housing demand, newer housing stock, and a relatively favorable regulatory environment have not changed with this update.
Even within the voucher ecosystem, this shift is not entirely new. Rent reasonableness has already tightened over the past year. The 2026 standards primarily formalize a lower maximum, not a rejection of higher-quality rentals. In many cases, voucher-backed leases still clear open-market rents.
As we move through 2026, we will continue adapting. That may mean being more selective on single-family homes, expanding into duplexes or small multifamily, or pursuing opportunistic strategies where spreads justify the risk.
The year did not start with easy news. But it did start with clarity. And in Dallas, clarity tends to reward patient, data-driven investors far more than reactive ones.