Why Dallas Still Wins: Renters, Growth, and the Great Suburban Shift

There’s no shortage of scary headlines in today’s housing market.

Mortgage rates are stuck near 7 percent. Buyer demand is slowing. And according to Moody’s, Dallas is one of several U.S. metros projected to see home prices fall by more than 5 percent over the next two years (MarketWatch).

That may sound like trouble. But here’s what they’re missing.

For long-term investors, especially those focused on Section 8 housing, workforce tenants, or suburban rentals, this market isn’t scary. It’s strategic.

What the Headlines Get Right and What They Miss

Yes, it’s true. Homes are sitting longer. Buyer activity has cooled. And as of May 2025, average home prices in Dallas are down 4.6 percent year over year (Dallas Morning News).

But zoom in and the picture looks very different.

The decline is mostly in higher-end inventory and overbuilt submarkets. Meanwhile, renter demand—especially in the suburbs—is climbing fast. Over the past year, suburban renter households grew by 18 percent, compared to just 8 percent inside the city limits (Business Insider).

That tells us something important. While homebuyers are pausing, renters are powering forward.

The Great Suburban Shift

Drive north from Dallas and you’ll see it happening in real time.

Towns like Prosper, Celina, Gunter, and Melissa are surging with growth. Master-planned communities are expanding. Schools, infrastructure, and big-name employers are following the rooftops. According to the Wall Street Journal, Dallas is “sprawling toward Oklahoma,” and doing it with economic purpose, not speculation (WSJ).

For investors, this isn’t noise. It’s a roadmap. Buying along the path of growth has always been a winning strategy, and this particular path has a long runway left. I recently wrote about that in a blog post.

Why Renters Are Holding Up the Market

With rates still elevated, many would-be buyers are choosing to rent instead. That shift is especially pronounced in DFW suburbs, where families can find newer homes, better schools, and more space, often at a lower monthly cost than buying.

That means well-located rentals, especially larger single-family homes, are staying occupied. Section 8 demand remains strong. And properties that match up with DHA’s payment standards are seeing steady, reliable performance. With the most recent HAP freezes though, knowing there is non Section 8 fallback rental demand is important.

In short, investor-grade homes are still working, even in a softer market.

Dallas Still Ranks First for a Reason

Despite the cooling, Dallas–Fort Worth was recently named the number one U.S. market for real estate investors by PwC and the Urban Land Institute (NY Post).

That top ranking isn’t based on hype. It reflects the fundamentals that continue to separate DFW from the rest of the pack. The region leads in job creation, bringing in employers from across the country. Population growth remains strong, driven by people seeking affordability, opportunity, and a better quality of life.

Local governments support development, with zoning and permitting policies that welcome new housing. Suburban expansion continues to offer scale and value, giving investors the rare chance to buy into both yield and appreciation potential.

These are structural advantages, and they matter more than ever in a market defined by uncertainty.

What Smart Investors Are Doing Right Now

Investors who understand the market are staying active, not reactive.

Many are buying in high-growth towns like Princeton, Fate and Anna. These markets offer better rent-to-price ratios than the urban core, and many properties fall neatly within DHA voucher ranges.

Others are targeting 2000s-era homes that offer durability, curb appeal, and fewer surprises, often at a discount to new construction. And nearly everyone is negotiating. With most homes now closing at roughly 97 percent of list price, buyers are routinely securing five-figure concessions on mid-tier properties.

If you know what to look for, this is a great time to buy.

Final Thought: You Don’t Need to Time the Market, Just Understand It

Moody’s might be right that Dallas prices could dip a little more. But that doesn’t change the math for long-term investors.

If you buy for cash flow, stay in the right zip codes, and operate efficiently, you’ll maximize your odds to win in this market. Not despite the headwinds, but because of them.

Dallas still works. You just have to work it smart.